- Population: the entire set of individuals/units you care about (often conceptual).
- Sample: the observed subset you actually collect data from, used to learn about the population.
Statistical Inference
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- Parameter: a fixed (usually unknown) numerical characteristic of a population (e.g., \(\mu\), \(\sigma^2\), \(p\)).
- Statistic: a numerical summary computed from the sample (e.g., \(\bar{x}\), \(s^2\), \(\hat{p}\)) used to estimate the parameter.
The sampling distribution is the probability distribution of a statistic (like \(\bar{x}\)) over repeated random samples of the same size from the same population. It describes how the statistic varies due to sampling randomness.
- Estimator: a rule/statistic used to estimate a parameter (e.g., x̄ estimates μ).
- Bias: \(\mathrm{Bias}(\hat{\theta}) = \mathbb{E}[\hat{\theta}] - \theta\). Unbiased if this equals 0.
- Consistency: \(\hat{\theta} \to \theta\) in probability as \(n \to \infty\) (gets closer to the true value with more data).
Standard error (SE) is the standard deviation of a statistic’s sampling distribution (e.g., \(\mathrm{SE}(\bar{x}) = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\), often estimated by \(\frac{s}{\sqrt{n}}\)). It measures typical sampling variability of the estimate.
A 95% confidence interval means: if you repeated the same sampling process many times and built an interval each time, about 95% of those intervals would contain the true parameter. It does not mean there is a 95% probability the parameter is in this particular interval (frequentist interpretation).
The Central Limit Theorem says that for large n, many properly standardized sums/means are approximately normal, even if the population isn’t. This justifies normal-based confidence intervals and tests (z/t-style) under large-sample conditions.
Likelihood treats the observed data as fixed and views the parameter as variable: \(L(\theta \mid \mathrm{data}) \propto P(\mathrm{data} \mid \theta)\). It measures how plausible different parameter values are given the observed data.
MLE chooses the parameter value θ̂ that maximizes the likelihood (or log-likelihood): \(\hat{\theta} = \arg\max_{\theta} L(\theta \mid \mathrm{data})\). Intuition: pick parameters that make the observed data most probable under the model.
- Point estimate: a single best-guess number for the parameter (e.g., \(\bar{x}\)).
- Interval estimate: a range of plausible values with a confidence level (e.g., 95% CI), reflecting uncertainty.
- Statistical significance: an effect is unlikely under a null model (often p-value < \(\alpha\)), strongly influenced by sample size.
- Practical significance: the effect size is large/meaningful in real-world terms (cost, risk, impact). You can have one without the other.